What to Do With Iran (or the Islamic Republic of Iran)?

Over the past week events within and outside of Iran have come to a head with the international community. Earlier in the week 15 British marines and sailors were “detained” by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s naval force (an elite group that I will return to) in the Shatt al-Arab waterway. The waterway is around 125 miles long and essentially separates Iraq and Iran. Iran claims that the British were infringing on their territorial waters, but obviously the British are thinking the other way. Tony Blair called the acts unjust and illegal. Obviously all British ships have the best technology on them, including GPS, which in this case is a good indicator of where exactly the British ships were at.

The waterway has been a constant point of dispute since 1639 when the Ottoman Empire and the Persians signed an agreement that divided up the waterway and other parts of the land surrounding it. The trouble is that no boundaries were drawn and ever since then, Iraq has claimed the waterway as its sovereign territory. Evidently Iran has thought different over the past few hundred years, as shown by their recent act of aggression. A treaty was signed by the two nations in 1975 that divided the waterway down the middle, but that has never been enforced.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is an elite military group that only answers to either the Shah (top religious leader of Iran) or the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. One needs to understand that the religious leaders of Iran call the shots, not so much the president, even though you may see him on the news more often than not. The religious leaders will pick a group of candidates for president and then the public will cast their vote. Not exactly the most stable process that you will ever see, but whatever works for them.

Since the early 1980’s, Iran’s power in the region has gone unchecked, which leaves us in the current situation. On top of it all, it seems as if the Iranian government wants to trade the 15 Britons for a few of their own people who seemed to have “disappeared” over the past few months, including a former leader of the Revolutionary Guard. Depending on how far Blair wants to take things, he very well may have to deal with Iranians. Ahmadinejad may not deal though, as the UN Security Council today passed more sanctions on Iran for their continued pursuit of nuclear weapons (or “power” as he claims).

Where does this leave us? Ahmadinejad is severely ticked off right now and could easily have the 15 soldiers done away with. But on the other hand he would lose his leverage, much less half of his country at the expense of a lot of bombs and such. If the U.S. and our “coalition” were not in Iraq right now, there is a good chance that no one on the face of the planet would careless what Iran is doing, whether they are building nuclear bombs or making fried camel. President Bush underestimated the unyielding role that Iran has in the region and it makes me worry that our war monger president will pick another fight that he cannot possibly win out of sheer spite.

You may ask what exactly should the world do with Iran? I would have said leave the country alone, but that has obviously gone out the door and went on a permanent vacation. The U.S. is actually attempting to talk with Iran on diplomatic terms, but the president’s propensity for being a statesman is not exactly forthright. Iran is still a few years off from acquiring nuclear weapons, which does give the world some time to deal. Toothless resolutions by the UN are not the answer. I believe before we go in an shoot up the place, we should seriously consider this diplomacy stuff. But I have a feeling that it will not happen during this administration. Hold onto your horses, this could get messy.