Super-Duper Tuesday: It Could Be Over Sooner Than You Think

Today Illinois joined California, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Utah (along with West Virginia Republicans and New Mexico Democrats) by moving up the presidential primary to February 5th, 2008. You may have heard of “Super Tuesday,” or the day that most southern states hold their respective primaries that gives the south more influence, which essentially gives the rest of the nation direction on who to vote for in their primaries that occur at a later date, or what we like to call the “bandwagon” effect. But that is all going to change, with another 4 state governments contemplating the same move (NJ, NY, FL, and GA- some of the most populous states in the union).

What is all the hype about you may wonder? By holding their primary elections earlier than usual, these states are going to force candidates to concentrate more on their states, hence giving these states more influence over who the respective parties nominate. In other words, the nomination process is going to be highly contested and less predictable than in the past. This process is called “front-loading” in political science terms. Normally, we hear about the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries which use to help predict how other state primaries would turn out. Even though Iowa goes first on January 14th and New Hampshire goes on January 19th, these states will not hold the electoral prestige they once had.

In essence, February 5th will turn out to be a giant national primary that will decide the presidential nominations much earlier than usual. With each party’s respective presidential candidates locked up, the official campaign for the presidency can begin on both sides of the aisle. But like most things in politics, the early primaries will help support each state’s “favorite candidate.” For example, on the Democratic side it is obvious that Illinois is going early in order to provide support for Barack Obama, while New York could potentially go early to offer support for Hillary Clinton.

How does the presidential primary system work you may wonder? It is not as complicated as the Electoral College system that we use to elect the president, but rather it is similar to the parliamentary election format. For example, if I were to cast a vote for Barack Obama on February 5th, my vote would in turn be attached to a delegate that is to attend the Democratic National Convention at a later date. That delegate is then required by the party or law (depending on the state) to vote for that particular candidate at the convention.

It is not a pluralistic system (winner take all), but in a sense it is a proportional system. If Obama receives a million votes and Clinton receives 500,000 votes in Illinois (hypothetical situation, as there are not that many delegates sent to the convention), Obama would receive more delegates at the national convention in favor of nominating him for the presidency. The candidate with the most total delegates in their favor from all 50 states will be declared the party’s nominee. In other words, we will already know who each party’s respective presidential candidate will be on February 5th, it’s simple math. But the national party convention is a mere formality to help spread the party line and procure more votes for the general election in November.

The Decline of Catholicism

Pope Benedict XVI finished up a five day trip to Brazil on Sunday with accusations that Marxism and capitalism are to blame for the decline Catholicism in the region. Brazil, the most populous Catholic nation on the planet, which is home to 100 million of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics, was chosen as meeting point for 20 cardinals, 169 arch bishops, and bishops to discuss solutions to counter the growing problem of those converting to other faiths and Catholics who have become apathetic. Why is the pope concerned with Brazil and South America in general though?

Besides Brazil, South and Central America contain the brunt of the world’s Catholic population mainly because of the countless missions sent to the continents during the colonial era. Evidently the faith took root and has flourished since, but problems have arisen that the Vatican needs to deal with. In 1980 almost 89% of Brazilians claimed to be Catholic, but a more recent poll taken in 2000 revealed a steady decline, only 74% revealed that they were Catholic; a trend that is consuming most Central and South American nations. What is to blame for the decline besides apathy?

The pope and his predecessor, John Paul II has pointed to the rise of evangelicals or those that claim to be “born again Christians.” Typically these evangelicals reside mainly within the Protestant sect of religions, i.e. the arch nemesis of Catholicism since the mid 1500’s when Martin Luther challenged the ritualism and beliefs of the Western church. Unknown to many, more than half of those in the U.S. claim to be “born again Christians.” In comparison with the Catholic Church’s conservative doctrinal stance on countless social issues, evangelicals are generally liberal and think the exact opposite.

We all thought that rhetorical war between religions had been curbed over the past few centuries, especially those of us that reside in the U.S. where most people are tolerant (or don’t care) about the faith of our neighbor. There may not be as much violence over religion (in general world context), but social issues are bringing fiery rhetoric to the forefront. Mexico recently passed a law that legalized abortion, which was comparable to lighting a match and throwing it into a barrel full of gun powder; trouble is that the barrel is located in Rome.

Benedict blames capitalism and Marxism, two “modern” forms of economics. Over the past millennia Marx’s theory of socialism has rained true; the economy has been the center of human existence, i.e. all social systems function around it. Human greed and prosperity have been the one true challenge to religions and Benedict has realized this. Typically leftist nations and leaders (Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez) do not emphasize religion or it is banned. Social services and the glorification of the nation is the paramount goal, not practicing religion. Capitalism on the other hand is more concerned with one thing, money. Money is the root of all evil as far as most religions are concerned; you make the connection.

What will become of religion in our post modern society? Marx himself once called religion “the opium of the masses.” Humans have a need for religion because we do not like to think that we are alone; that a higher power is watching over and governing us. Yet recently, especially in the United States, we have experienced a “moral decline.” The pope’s concerns are valid, as he is doing what all of his predecessors have done, which is to try to maintain the allegiance of the masses, i.e. the power of the church. Catholicism’s conservative doctrine in a progressive world may very well indeed spell an increased decline in the faithful over the next decade.