April 2007: Where the Candidates Stand
In my constant monitoring of every poll known to man, I have started to notice trends about our potential candidates for president next November. The anomalous aspect of this election cycle is that it has begun in earnest, which more or less tends to confuse Americans more so than anything else. I will take a look at each of the respective parties and where their front runners stand as of April 12, 2007. Might I add that we should all look at the news reports and numbers with a cautious eye due to the fact that it is April 2007, no where near primary season, which in itself will occur earlier than usual (December).

The GOP:
Rudy Giuliani has been the front runner in the polls since February. A correlation of polls from March 21st to April 9th puts the former New York mayor ahead of his nearest opponent John McCain by more than 15 points. Might I add that these results are pulled from potential Republican voters. Following McCain is former Senator Fred Thompson, who has not even declared yet (out of health concerns), then followed by GOP caucus favorite former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and finally the undeclared Newt Gingrich. Check out realclearpolitics.com for the in depth numbers.

Giuliani has held a sizeable lead since he has declared his intention to run, which more or less caters to the notion that Americans, especially amongst the GOP that we want a strong leader (9/11). Giuliani has raised around $15 million hence far, which is middle of the pack when you bring the Democrats into it. McCain on the other hand may have shot himself in the foot, at least with independents when he stated that he supported the president’s war in Iraq. Granted, 70% of Republicans claim to support the war, but he is not going to win anything catering to his base of voters; he needs to step outside of the box. McCain raised a petty $12.5 million over the course of the first ten weeks of the campaign, which may or may not hurt him when things get hot later in the year.

Mitt Romney, in a distant third in public opinion, but a distant first amongst the GOP caucus came out on top for fund raising. Romney generated a hefty $23 million from January 1 to March 31, which again signals that he is a favorite amongst Republicans. But the trouble with Romney is that he appears to be too conservative for the 42% of Americans that are undecided in their vote, i.e. the independents. Plus he does not have the same name recognition that many of his opponents have. Fred Thompson has yet to declare, but recent appearances on talk shows to discuss his intentions signals that he may very well be ready to declare. He recently disclosed that he was diagnosed with lymphoma (cancer) in 2004, but has since beat the disease into remission.


The Democrats:
On the Democratic side of the coin it appears as if Hillary Clinton holds a 13 point lead over nearest challenger Barack Obama. John Edwards is in a distant third with around 15 percent of public opinion behind him. He rose 9 percentage points after his wife, Elizabeth revealed that her breast cancer had returned and metastasized into her bones. This is not sympathy from the public, but a decision by potential Democratic voters that they believe in the Edwards’ decision to carry on with the campaign. Al Gore, who has not declared has 11 points of support from the public.

As with Giuliani, Clinton has been the front runner from the start of her campaign. Obviously her claim to fame is that she was first lady for 8 years and her subsequent victory to the Senate from New York. She also raised $26 million in the first quarter of her campaign, distancing herself from the rest of the field. Obama, who is still seen as a “rock star” in the Democratic Party came in a lose second in the fund raising effort by raising a petty $22 million over the first quarter. Usually it is the Democrats that have the problem raising funds, but Clinton and Obama have beaten the GOP at their own game. Like I said, we are still early in the campaigns, so do not be misled by the lack of pummeling on each other from both the Clinton and Obama camps. There is a good chance that both campaigns will start to fester negative feelings as primary time approaches.

Edwards has taken in $14 million in the first quarter, but it has not expanded his fortunes. The public believes in his leadership ability, at least under extreme duress, which is why he gained in the polls. Al Gore gained considerable support after his Academy Award win for his documentary “An Inconvenient Truth.” But he has reiterated many times over that he is not interested in running for president, which after his studious career in public service; I do not blame him.