Super-Duper Tuesday: It Could Be Over Sooner Than You Think

Today Illinois joined California, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Utah (along with West Virginia Republicans and New Mexico Democrats) by moving up the presidential primary to February 5th, 2008. You may have heard of “Super Tuesday,” or the day that most southern states hold their respective primaries that gives the south more influence, which essentially gives the rest of the nation direction on who to vote for in their primaries that occur at a later date, or what we like to call the “bandwagon” effect. But that is all going to change, with another 4 state governments contemplating the same move (NJ, NY, FL, and GA- some of the most populous states in the union).

What is all the hype about you may wonder? By holding their primary elections earlier than usual, these states are going to force candidates to concentrate more on their states, hence giving these states more influence over who the respective parties nominate. In other words, the nomination process is going to be highly contested and less predictable than in the past. This process is called “front-loading” in political science terms. Normally, we hear about the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries which use to help predict how other state primaries would turn out. Even though Iowa goes first on January 14th and New Hampshire goes on January 19th, these states will not hold the electoral prestige they once had.

In essence, February 5th will turn out to be a giant national primary that will decide the presidential nominations much earlier than usual. With each party’s respective presidential candidates locked up, the official campaign for the presidency can begin on both sides of the aisle. But like most things in politics, the early primaries will help support each state’s “favorite candidate.” For example, on the Democratic side it is obvious that Illinois is going early in order to provide support for Barack Obama, while New York could potentially go early to offer support for Hillary Clinton.

How does the presidential primary system work you may wonder? It is not as complicated as the Electoral College system that we use to elect the president, but rather it is similar to the parliamentary election format. For example, if I were to cast a vote for Barack Obama on February 5th, my vote would in turn be attached to a delegate that is to attend the Democratic National Convention at a later date. That delegate is then required by the party or law (depending on the state) to vote for that particular candidate at the convention.

It is not a pluralistic system (winner take all), but in a sense it is a proportional system. If Obama receives a million votes and Clinton receives 500,000 votes in Illinois (hypothetical situation, as there are not that many delegates sent to the convention), Obama would receive more delegates at the national convention in favor of nominating him for the presidency. The candidate with the most total delegates in their favor from all 50 states will be declared the party’s nominee. In other words, we will already know who each party’s respective presidential candidate will be on February 5th, it’s simple math. But the national party convention is a mere formality to help spread the party line and procure more votes for the general election in November.