Party Conventions: Worth the Hype?

With the Democratic National Convention (DNC) happening this week, I figured that it would be worthwhile to have a word about the current status for the highest office in the land. To this point, the presumed nominees, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied in the polls with just over 3 months remaining until Election Day. Predictably, those numbers may jump in favor of Obama during and after the DNC, but not as much as in the past. The “bump” that candidates receive after their party’s respective conventions is usually noticeable. However, the Republican National Convention is set to be staged next week, just four days after the DNC concludes. Mind you, this is not a coincidence, holding the RNC a so close to the DNC was planned.

With that said, I do not expect the numbers to go up considerably in favor of either candidate over the coming weeks. Obama has named his VP nominee, Delaware Senator Joe Biden and McCain has yet to announce his. Unless McCain taps Bill Gates, it will not make much difference in the polls, at least in terms of favorables. Where do the conventions leave us then? I venture to posit that each party’s respective convention will leave the status of the election where we stood on August 1st: Up in arms.

With no substantial bumps expected, the coming three months are going to be vital for each candidate, especially in battle ground states. I expect there to be heavy campaigning from both candidates in the following states: WI, VA, PA, OH, NM, NH, NV, MO, MI, IA, IN, FL, and CO. Of those states, expect to see a lot of Obama in Florida if the numbers remain close in the state. The high numbers of African American and Latino voters in Florida may in fact make a difference if it is close in November. Missouri may also be worthwhile for both candidates, as the nation’s “bellwether” has voted on the side of each presidential winner since 1904 (excluding 1956).

Let the games begin, again.