The Significance of Population Numbers

Today the Japanese government released alarming statistics concerning their future population growth, well, rather decline. Within the next 50 years their population will decline by almost 30%. The elderly population (those over 65) will rise by 40.5%, which will strain the welfare system of the state. Japan is the only industrialized nation with a declining population. Currently Japan’s population is a little over 127 million people. One would assume that falling population numbers may in fact be a good thing, as the Earth’s total population is expected to rise to almost 12 billion people by 2050, which will put further tension on a variety of social and environmental resources. But the significance of the Japan numbers is concerning because Japan is obviously an ally of the United States and a large contributor to other various western nations.

In reviewing population numbers, it is critical to assess the fertility rate of the women in a particular country to gage the sustainability of a country. In the case of Japan, that number is estimated at 1.4 children born per woman. The other vital number to look at is of course, population growth rate. Japan’s current number is around .02% a year, which is low in comparison to other nations. To point out the disparities in population growth, it is vital to look at a prospering nation, at least in the context of population. India is to become the most populous country in the world within the next few years, overtaking China in the process. It was estimated that India’s population in July 2006 was around 1.1 billion and growing. India’s population is growing at 1.38% a year, which in the milieu of 1.1 billion people, their numbers are steady and on the rise. Their fertility rate is 2.73 children per woman, which is a solid number.

The United States on the other hand is the third most populous nation on the planet, with 300 million people as of October. Our growth rate is around .91% a year and on the rise, with our fertility rate at 2.09 children per woman. A steady flow of new people is vital to any nation, as the economy of any nation is dependent on population growth (a pseudo-Marxism theory of sorts). A good analogy would be this: A nation with one person attempting to run every aspect of the country, or a nation with 2 people trying to run every aspect of a country. Obviously, the country with two people would have the advantage, at least in a capitalist system.

Essentially, the more people a nation possesses, the more likely that nation is likely to succeed. In a communist system such as Chinas', it is the reverse (not as much as it use to). China as of now is still the most populous country on the planet, but the government’s infamous law concerning only one child per couple has staggered their population. In their case, the more people, the more unlikely the government can maintain control. This is not an argument of communism vs. capitalism, but is simply pointing out why population helps to fuel a country in this day and age.

-Source of population numbers: CIA World Factbook 2006